Tropics still uncertain

Published 2:54 am Saturday, August 27, 2016


Forecasters, emergency management agencies and others are watching and waiting to see what will happen with Invest 99L.

Friday’s update said the tropical wave was even less organized Friday morning than Thursday, which dropped the probabilities of it developing into at least a tropical storm to 60 percent, down from 80 percent the last few days.

The chance of formation has dropped to 20 percent in the next 48 hours, which put the system as poorly disorganized through Sunday morning.

“It now appears eminent we won’t know anything about short-term development until the wave enters the southeast Gulf of Mexico – as it is forecast to do,” Covington County EMA director Susan Harris said. “Until that time, you will continue to see the models all over the place and uncertainty is about as high as I’ve ever seen.”

That means the weekend is a watch and see,

The new forecasts do bypass a Florida East coast landfall with an emergence in the Gulf of Mexico and now show that the wave will enter the Gulf of Mexico without a Florida Peninsula landfall.