Fall forecast: Southeast vulnerable

Published 2:20 am Thursday, August 3, 2017

AccuWeather issued its fall forecast Wednesday, predicting summer warmth will linger into fall across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, areas farther south will remain alert for tropical hits long after summer has faded.

Southeast to remain vulnerable to tropical hits

Though the Southeast had an easy start to the hurricane season in 2017, a few tropical hits may threaten to spoil the first half of fall.

“We think that the areas that are more vulnerable this year are still the Gulf Coast and along the Carolina coast,” AccuWeather Expert Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

There is currently no active tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and none predicted in the next five days.

In July, Colorado State University increased its forecast for tropical storms and hurricanes forecast for the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

A total of 15 named storms and eight hurricanes are now expected in the Atlantic basin. Three of the eight are forecast to become Category 3 or higher – or major hurricanes – on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

So far there have been five named storms.

In addition to tropical threats, frequent showers and thunderstorms could lead to flooding, including in areas which had drought last year, such as northern Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee.

Humidity will remain high across the region with few cooldowns predicted until late in the season.


Conditions to be ripe for tornado outbreaks across the southern Plains

Severe weather will threaten the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley as temperatures run above normal in the Gulf.

“If you get any of these mid- to late-season storms coming down in the northern Plains like we’re expecting, you’re going to get a clash of air masses [in the southern Plains],” Pastelok said.

This clash could cause to severe weather to erupt, with the threat for tornado outbreaks from Texas to Tennessee, he said.

Showers and thunderstorms may also lead to episodes of flooding in the lower valley of Texas.